With just 10 matches to
end the 2014/2015 First Capital Plus Premier League, Totalsportsghana.com has
projected that AshantiGold SC will win the league with 55 points, leaving their
closest contenders Asante Kotoko with 49 Points six points adrift the top.
The analysis took into
consideration the performance and trend of the league from week one to 20, and
the data of the last 10 matches in the past 5 years of the teams currently in
contention. With a 75% win and 25% draw in the league coupled with the fact
that only 12.4% of the matches has ended in away wins, We don't expect any
significant change from the trend, and believe if it continues as expected,
then the miners will win their first League title in 20 years.
Below is their last
10 league matches
AshantiGold FC 0 - 0 Aduana
Stars 05-Jul-15
Heart of Lions 0 - 0 AshantiGold
FC 19-Jul-15
AshantiGold
FC 0 - 0 Edubiase FC 22-Jul-15
Asante Kotoko 0 - 0 AshantiGold FC 26-Jul-15
AshantiGold
FC 0 - 0 Liberty Professionals 02-Aug-15
Bechem United 0 - 0 AshantiGold
FC 05-Aug-15
AshantiGold FC 0 - 0 Medeama
SC 09-Aug-15
Berekum Chelsea 0 - 0 AshantiGold
FC 16-Aug-15
AshantiGold
FC 0 - 0 WAFA 06-Sep-15
Olympics 0 - 0 AshantiGold
FC 13-Sep-15
ANALYSIS
AshantiGold currently
occupy the top spot with 37 points, They have a total
home points of 26 from 10 home matches, an average of 2.6 while they have away points of 11, an average of 1.1 points
from away games.
per the analysis, the
team will pick 13 points from the remaining 5 home matches and pick 5 points
from the remaining 5 away matches which will together give them 55 points.
37+13+5=55points
If AshantiGold maintain
their past 5 years record of picking an average of 18 points in their last 10
league matches, then one can easily say they are run away league winners, the
data below shows the performance of AshantiGold in the last five years (Their
last 10 matches in the League)
2009/2010 W5 D3 L2 = 18
Points
2010/2011 W5 D3 L2 = 18
points
2011/2012 W4 D5 L1 = 17
points
2012/2013 W5 D1 L4 = 16
Points
2013/2014 W5 D2 L3 = 17
Points
Aduana
Stars
They Occupy the second
spot with 32 points now, and have picked 28 points from their 10 home matches,
an average of 2.8 points per home match.
Aduana has picked just 4 points from away, an average of 0.4 Points per match
Per the analysis,
Aduana will pick 14 home points, and 2 away points from the remaining 10
matches.
32+14+2=48
Aduana Stars have an
average of 14.8 points gain in their last 10 league matches in the last 5 years,
with the exception of the 2009/2010 and the 2013/2014 season where they picked
17 points in their last 10 matches, the best they have done is to pick 14
points, if the trend continue for Aduana then our analysis of them picking 18
points in the last 10 matches this season will come to pass.
Below
is their last 10 league matches in the last 5 years
2009/2010 W5 D2 L3 = 17
2010/2011 W4 D2 L4 = 14
2011/2012 W3 D4 L3 = 13
2012/2013 W4 D1 L5 = 13
2013/2014 W5 D2 L3= 17
Below is their last
10 league matches
AshantiGold
FC 0 - 0 Aduana Stars 05-Jul-15
Aduana Stars 0 - 0 Hearts
of Oak 19-Jul-15
Wa All Stars 0 - 0 Aduana
Stars 22-Jul-15
Aduana
Stars 0 - 0 Inter-Allies 26-Jul-15
BA
Utd 0 - 0 Aduana Stars 02-Aug-15
Aduana Stars 0 - 0 Hasaacas 05-Aug-15
Aduana Stars 0 - 0 Olympics 09-Aug-15
Heart
of Lions 0 - 0 Aduana Stars 16-Aug-15
Aduana
Stars 0 - 0 Edubiase FC 06-Sep-15
Asante
Kotoko 0 - 0 Aduana Stars 13-Sep-15
Asante
Kotoko
They have picked 16
points from the 10 home matches, an average of 1.6 per match, and picked 12
points from away matches, an average of 12 points per match. Kotoko currently
has 28 points, and for them to win the league, they have to defy the leagues
average wins of 2.45 points and win all the remaining 10 matches, to get 30
points, and a total of 58 points.
If the trend remain as
it is, Kotoko is likely to pick 8 points from home, but then they have games
against certain opponents they have had historical advantage over at home in
the league, and will therefore improve upon that trend, we therefore expect
them to win 4 and draw 1, thereby giving them 13 home points from the possible
15. per the trend, Kotoko is expected to
pick 6 points from the remaining 15 points, but once again, they are unpredictable
in matches against Hearts of Oak, and away against Hasaacas. Kotoko is highly
unpredictable in the league, we therefore foresee them picking 8 points from the remaining 15 away points.
28+13+8=49
Asante Kotoko has an
average of 17.8 points in their last 10 matches over the last 5 years, and that
trend looks to continue this season
Below
is their last 10 league matches in the last 5 years
2009/2010 W4 D2 L4 = 14
2010/2011 W5 D3 L2 = 18
2011/2012 W6 D3 L1 = 21
2012/2013 W6 D4 L0 = 22
2013/2014 W2 D3 L5 = 9
Below is their last
10 league matches
Medeama SC 0 - 0 Asante
Kotoko 05-Jul-15
Asante
Kotoko 0 - 0 Berekum Chelsea 19-Jul-15
WAFA 0 - 0 Asante
Kotoko 22-Jul-15
Asante
Kotoko 0 - 0 AshantiGold FC 26-Jul-15
Hearts
of Oak 0 - 0 Asante Kotoko 02-Aug-15
Asante
Kotoko 0 - 0 Wa All Stars 05-Aug-15
Inter-Allies 0 - 0 Asante
Kotoko 09-Aug-15
Asante
Kotoko 0 - 0 BA Utd 16-Aug-15
Hasaacas 0 - 0 Asante
Kotoko 06-Sep-15
Asante
Kotoko 0 - 0 Aduana Stars 13-Sep-15
Hearts of Oak
Another team worth
considering in this Analysis is Accra Hearts of Oak, but as it stands now, they
have 26 points, 11points adrift the top team, and must win four matches and
expect the opposite to happen, beyond this, Hearts of Oak has relatively tough
games away against Liberty Professionals, Medeama sc, and WAFA, and a tricky
home game against Asante Kotoko, and Hearts of Lions, we therefore do not see them making the top
four position this year.
Berekum
Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea are not left out of the analysis, they have
30 points now with 5 home games against New Edubiase, Liberty Professionals,
Medeama SC, AshantiGold, and Wa All stars, with their bad away record in the
league which has seen them not win in 30 consecutive away league matches,
Berekum Chelsea will likely settle for the fourth Spot, we believe Berekum
Chelsea are capable of winning all their remaining home matches to give them 45 points
Wa
All Stars
Even though the Wa
based club has enjoyed a relatively good second round, they are still bad
travelers, picking just 5 points, from a possible 30, the trend is likely to
continue. If Wa All Stars continue their current good home form, then they are
expected to pick 13 homes points from the possible 15, while we don't expect
them to pick an away point, that will eventually give them 43 points in total at the end of the league.
WAFA
Below
is their last 10 league matches
WAFA vs
Heart of Lions
Edubiase vs WAFA
WAFA vs
Kotoko
Liberty
vs WAFA
WAFA vs Bechem
Medeama vs WAFA
WAFA vs Chelsea
Olympics vs WAFA
AshantiGold vs WAFA
WAFA vs Hearts of Oak
WAFA are in the top four now
with 30 points, and relatively good at home,
their last five home fixtures are matches that involves some of the
"Big Boys" in the league (Hearts of Oak, Kotoko and Heart of Lions)
these are difficult home matches for the Sogakope young lads, they will require
extra effort to win all three. WAFA is
likely to pick 10 points from the remaining 15 home points available, WAFA's last five away matches will be
"hell" for them against New Edubiase, Liberty, AshantiGold, Medeama,
and Great Olympics, with their bad away record in the league, the Analysis
gives WAFA just 1 points from the remaining 5 away matches. Therefore they are likely to end the league
with 41 points.
WAFA
30+10+1=41
In the final Analysis,
GhFootballFacts expect the top four to finish this way:
Ashanrigold = 55 Points
Asante Kotoko = 49 Points
Aduana = 48 Points
Berekum Chelsea = 45Points
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