Thursday, 2 July 2015

Projected First Capital Plus Premier League Winner: AshantiGold SC to win with 55 points

With just 10 matches to end the 2014/2015 First Capital Plus Premier League, Totalsportsghana.com has projected that AshantiGold SC will win the league with 55 points, leaving their closest contenders Asante Kotoko with 49 Points six points adrift  the top.
The analysis took into consideration the performance and trend of the league from week one to 20, and the data of the last 10 matches in the past 5 years of the teams currently in contention. With a 75% win and 25% draw in the league coupled with the fact that only 12.4% of the matches has ended in away wins, We don't expect any significant change from the trend, and believe if it continues as expected, then the miners will win their first League title in 20  years.
Below is their last 10 league matches
AshantiGold FC         0 - 0     Aduana Stars  05-Jul-15
Heart of Lions 0 - 0     AshantiGold FC         19-Jul-15
AshantiGold FC        0 - 0     Edubiase FC  22-Jul-15
Asante Kotoko            0 - 0     AshantiGold FC         26-Jul-15        
AshantiGold FC        0 - 0     Liberty Professionals            02-Aug-15
Bechem United           0 - 0     AshantiGold FC         05-Aug-15
AshantiGold FC         0 - 0     Medeama SC  09-Aug-15
Berekum Chelsea        0 - 0     AshantiGold FC         16-Aug-15      
AshantiGold FC        0 - 0     WAFA            06-Sep-15
Olympics         0 - 0     AshantiGold FC         13-Sep-15       
ANALYSIS
AshantiGold currently occupy the top spot with 37 points, They have a  total  home points of  26 from 10 home  matches, an average of 2.6 while they have  away points of 11, an average of 1.1 points from away games.
per the analysis, the team will pick 13 points from the remaining 5 home matches and pick 5 points from the remaining 5 away matches which will together give them 55 points.
37+13+5=55points
If AshantiGold maintain their past 5 years record of picking an average of 18 points in their last 10 league matches, then one can easily say they are run away league winners, the data below shows the performance of AshantiGold in the last five years (Their last 10 matches in the League)
2009/2010 W5 D3 L2 = 18 Points
2010/2011 W5 D3 L2 = 18 points
2011/2012 W4 D5 L1 = 17 points
2012/2013 W5 D1 L4 = 16 Points
2013/2014 W5 D2 L3 = 17 Points

Aduana Stars
They Occupy the second spot with 32 points now, and have picked 28 points from their 10 home matches, an average of  2.8 points per home match. Aduana has picked just 4 points from away, an average of 0.4 Points per match
Per the analysis, Aduana will pick 14 home points, and 2 away points from the remaining 10 matches.
32+14+2=48
Aduana Stars have an average of 14.8 points gain in their last 10 league matches in the last 5 years, with the exception of the 2009/2010 and the 2013/2014 season where they picked 17 points in their last 10 matches, the best they have done is to pick 14 points, if the trend continue for Aduana then our analysis of them picking 18 points in the last 10 matches this season will come to pass.
Below is their last 10 league matches in the last 5 years
2009/2010 W5 D2 L3 = 17
2010/2011 W4 D2 L4 = 14
2011/2012 W3 D4 L3 = 13
2012/2013 W4 D1 L5 = 13
2013/2014 W5 D2 L3= 17
Below is their last 10 league matches
AshantiGold FC           0 - 0     Aduana Stars   05-Jul-15
Aduana Stars  0 - 0     Hearts of Oak 19-Jul-15
Wa All Stars       0 - 0  Aduana Stars      22-Jul-15
Aduana Stars   0 - 0     Inter-Allies       26-Jul-15
BA Utd   0 - 0 Aduana Stars 02-Aug-15     
Aduana Stars  0 - 0     Hasaacas        05-Aug-15
Aduana Stars  0 - 0     Olympics         09-Aug-15
Heart of Lions 0 - 0     Aduana Stars   16-Aug-15
Aduana Stars   0 - 0     Edubiase FC    06-Sep-15       
Asante Kotoko 0 - 0     Aduana Stars   13-Sep-15
Asante Kotoko
They have picked 16 points from the 10 home matches, an average of 1.6 per match, and picked 12 points from away matches, an average of 12 points per match. Kotoko currently has 28 points, and for them to win the league, they have to defy the leagues average wins of 2.45 points and win all the remaining 10 matches, to get 30 points, and a total of 58 points.
If the trend remain as it is, Kotoko is likely to pick 8 points from home, but then they have games against certain opponents they have had historical advantage over at home in the league, and will therefore improve upon that trend, we therefore expect them to win 4 and draw 1, thereby giving them 13 home points from the possible 15. per  the trend, Kotoko is expected to pick 6 points from the remaining 15 points, but once again, they are unpredictable in matches against Hearts of Oak, and away against Hasaacas. Kotoko is highly unpredictable in the league, we therefore foresee them picking  8 points from the remaining 15 away points.
28+13+8=49
Asante Kotoko has an average of 17.8 points in their last 10 matches over the last 5 years, and that trend looks to continue this season
Below is their last 10 league matches in the last 5 years
2009/2010 W4 D2  L4 = 14
2010/2011 W5 D3 L2 = 18
2011/2012 W6 D3 L1 = 21
2012/2013 W6 D4 L0 = 22
2013/2014 W2 D3 L5 = 9
Below is their last 10 league matches
Medeama SC  0 - 0     Asante Kotoko            05-Jul-15
Asante Kotoko 0 - 0     Berekum Chelsea         19-Jul-15
WAFA 0 - 0     Asante Kotoko            22-Jul-15
Asante Kotoko 0 - 0     AshantiGold FC           26-Jul-15        
Hearts of Oak    0 - 0  Asante Kotoko  02-Aug-15
Asante Kotoko 0 - 0     Wa All Stars     05-Aug-15      
Inter-Allies      0 - 0     Asante Kotoko            09-Aug-15
Asante Kotoko 0 - 0     BA Utd            16-Aug-15
Hasaacas        0 - 0     Asante Kotoko            06-Sep-15
Asante Kotoko 0 - 0     Aduana Stars   13-Sep-15
Hearts of Oak
Another team worth considering in this Analysis is Accra Hearts of Oak, but as it stands now, they have 26 points, 11points adrift the top team, and must win four matches and expect the opposite to happen, beyond this, Hearts of Oak has relatively tough games away against Liberty Professionals, Medeama sc, and WAFA, and a tricky home game against Asante Kotoko, and Hearts of Lions,  we therefore do not see them making the top four position this year.
Berekum Chelsea
Berekum Chelsea  are not left out of the analysis, they have 30 points now with 5 home games against New Edubiase, Liberty Professionals, Medeama SC, AshantiGold, and Wa All stars, with their bad away record in the league which has seen them not win in 30 consecutive away league matches, Berekum Chelsea will likely settle for the fourth Spot, we believe Berekum Chelsea are capable of winning all their remaining home matches to give them 45 points
Wa All Stars
Even though the Wa based club has enjoyed a relatively good second round, they are still bad travelers, picking just 5 points, from a possible 30, the trend is likely to continue. If Wa All Stars continue their current good home form, then they are expected to pick 13 homes points from the possible 15, while we don't expect them to pick an away point, that will eventually give them 43 points in total at the end of the league.

WAFA
Below is their last 10 league matches
WAFA vs  Heart of Lions
Edubiase vs WAFA
WAFA vs Kotoko
Liberty vs  WAFA
WAFA  vs Bechem
Medeama vs  WAFA         
WAFA vs Chelsea
Olympics vs WAFA            
AshantiGold vs  WAFA
WAFA vs Hearts of Oak
WAFA are in the top four now with 30 points, and relatively good at home,  their last five home fixtures are matches that involves some of the "Big Boys" in the league (Hearts of Oak, Kotoko and Heart of Lions) these are difficult home matches for the Sogakope young lads, they will require extra effort to win all three.  WAFA is likely to pick 10 points from the remaining 15 home points available,   WAFA's last five away matches will be "hell" for them against New Edubiase, Liberty, AshantiGold, Medeama, and Great Olympics, with their bad away record in the league, the Analysis gives WAFA just 1 points from the remaining 5 away matches.  Therefore they are likely to end the league with 41 points.
WAFA 30+10+1=41
In the final Analysis, GhFootballFacts expect the top four to finish this way:
Ashanrigold  = 55 Points
Asante Kotoko = 49 Points
Aduana = 48 Points

Berekum Chelsea = 45Points

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